I’ve Got My Eye On You, Robert Stacy McCain

September 5, 2009

Robert Stacy McCain (who is totally hilarious, even if you vehemently disagree with him) has a post on an FHA bailout he believes is heading our way. I have no opinion on the matter one way or another because I haven’t really looked into it and I try to have some idea of what is going on before I open my big mouth.

(Although I occasionally fail at even that simple task.)

But one of McCain’s statements made me pretty skeptical (emphasized below):

The FHA is on the hook for lots of “underwater” loans, taken out by low-income homeowners who got special low down-payment deals and — in case you didn’t notice — unemployment hit a 26-year high in August, with no prospect the 9.7% jobless rate will go down any time this year.

Really? No prospect at all? Not  even an itsy-bitsy prospect?

I know it is something of a debate as to whether we’re currently seeing a real recovery or something more akin to an extended dead cat bounce. I personally kind of oscillate between the two views and I think there is a good deal of evidence supporting either side.

But I tend to think we’re definately seeing a slowdown in unemployment and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see it go down by the end of the year.

So, Mr. McCain, I’m watching you. One of the greatest things about the internet is normal people can go back and see how right or wrong someone was in the past, using this information to judge their future claims.

If unemployment dips below 9.7% by the end of the year, I will make a point that your enormous confidence in the suckiness of the economy was misplaced.

If it does not, I will write a humble post begging your forgiveness. I’m curious to see how this goes.

One Response to “I’ve Got My Eye On You, Robert Stacy McCain”

  1. ablur Says:

    I think we will see a continued rise in unemployment through the end of the year. There is no redeeming issue that will restore confidence back into the market over the next four months. There is also plenty of reason to believe in a greater decline come mid October.
    My current prediction for a turn around is April unless congress passes Cap and Tax or Healthcare Reform HR3200. If these pass all bets are off and we are in a free fall for 9-12 months.
    There are some predictions you can check out as well.


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